ANALYSIS: The chances of reaching an agreement remain high, says Laura Kuenssberg > Mr Johnson also sent a second letter in which he said he believed a further extension would harm the interests of the UK and our EU partners. » In this article, we discuss the likelihood that the government will be able to deliver on that promise. Our conclusion is that the UK is unlikely to leave the EU on 31 October, even if an agreement is reached this week. To ratify an agreement, Parliament would also have to approve the framework for future relations between the UK and the EU and pass a law on the implementation of the withdrawal agreement. It is unlikely that MPs will lift the government`s commitment to an extension without having had time to consider these important instruments. If there is no agreement, the Benn Act will likely require the UK government to request a further extension of the Article 50 deadline, even if it does not wish to do so. Article 50 provides for an appeal procedure allowing a member to inform the European Council and a negotiation period of up to two years for the treaties to no longer apply to that member, whereas a withdrawal agreement can be concluded by qualified majority.  In this case, 20 remaining EU countries, with a total population of 65%, must approve the agreement.  If the Council of the European Union does not unanimously approve an extension, the UK`s withdrawal date under this article is the deadline that ends on the second anniversary of the country`s official communication to the EU. New agreements are expected to be negotiated over the two-year period, but there is no legal obligation to enter into agreements.  Some aspects, such as trade agreements.
B new, can hardly be negotiated until the UK has officially left the EU.  If the EU heads of state or government had decided to offer a longer extension, they would probably have met in person to set the conditions for the extension. Given the strong incentive this provides the remaining EU to reach an agreement that avoids the imposition of tariffs on goods exports to its largest domestic export market (UK), the UK is in a very strong position to secure acceptable conditions for a mutually beneficial future trade agreement. Unfortunately, this government seems very ill-concerned about playing a very important role in the negotiations, and it seems almost certain that any agreement it can get will not be optimal and that it is very likely that it will be worse than any agreement. On Saturday, October 19, Mr. Johnson sent a letter to be compelled to do so by a law known as the Benn Act. The law stipulated that he would have to apply for an extension if he did not reach a Brexit deal in the House of Commons by the end of 19 October. Now that the UK cabinet has secured the UK government`s agreement on the Brexit deal (in the form of the draft withdrawal agreement published by the EU and the UK on 14 November), the UK is focusing on its approval by Parliament. This raises the question of the so-called « wise vote » of the British Parliament on the agreement, but also raises a number of questions about what will happen if Parliament votes against the agreement. As an alternative to the UK`s withdrawal from the EU without a deal on 29 March 2019, various options were proposed in the general election, a new referendum, an extension of the Article 50 deadline on 29 March 2019 – but each of these options raises fundamental legal and practical questions.
In addition, the question arises as to whether, if the government refuses to pursue any of these options, Parliament can reach out to the government. It may also be useful to refer to the following common Library Briefing documents, which dealt with the first two extensions of Article 50: Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed that talks with the EU would not begin in 2016.